The ongoing global COVID-19 epidemic has
caused and continues to cause several issues throughout day-to-day life as well
as in the world of sports. It was one such complication that has led to
something somewhat unique in the current landscape in which we are in, in the
sport of Boxing. Two well-publicized pay-per-view Boxing cards taking place on
the same day.
Those who have followed the work of this
observer over the years know that I have long been a critic of the pay-per-view
model. To be more specific, I am critical of inflated price points as well as
more often than not, only a fraction of a full Boxing card being made available
to the consumer for what are often price points that begin at $60 or above. On
February 5th, there will be two different price points that will be
interesting to see what attracts consumers more as one is reasonably priced,
while the other is in line with what has unfortunately become the industry's
standard for pay-per-view events. First,
the card which has led to this unique double offering of Boxing cards is one
that was rescheduled from it’s original January 29th date due to the
British Boxing Board of Control choosing to suspend all combat sports events in
the United Kingdom and Ireland during the month of January due to the surge in
COVID-19 cases caused by the latest Omicron variant of the virus. This observer is referring to the
pay-per-view card that will take place in Cardiff, Wales where undefeated
multi-division world champion Claressa Shields will defend her unified
WBC/IBF/WBA Middleweight world championship against undefeated top contender
Ema Kozin in a scheduled ten round bout.
The bout, which will co-headline a
pay-per-view event will be available on digital combat sports streaming network
and pay-per-view platform FITE in the United States and several international
countries for a price of $29.99. For
Shields, this will be her return to the Boxing ring after losing a three round split
decision in her second Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) bout in October of last year to
Abigail
Montes in a bout promoted by the Professional Fighters League (PFL) MMA
promotion. While Shields took some criticism from some fans online following
that loss, the reality is the sport of MMA is one that is still fairly new to
her in that Boxing is her primary combat sports discipline and she is certainly
not the first boxer to step into fighting under an MMA format with mixed
results.
While Shields’ MMA record stands at 1-1 and it is logical
that she will likely continue to pursue her MMA career, in the Boxing ring, she
remains undefeated as a professional and between the two combat sports, she has
only lost two fights with the one Boxing loss occurring as an amateur prior to
her winning two consecutive Olympic Gold medals in the 2012 and2016 games
respectively. The one Boxing loss was to fellow Middleweight world champion
Savannah Marshall, who like Shields is unbeaten as a professional. Perhaps not
coincidentally, Shields and Marshall appear to be on a collision course for a
potential unification bout later this year if Shields is able to retain her
unified portion of the Women’s World Middleweight championship against Kozin.
In Ema Kozin, Shields will face a fighter who is unbeaten in
twenty-two professional fights and will have a slight professional experience
edge over the more accomplished Shields. Kozin is also recognized as a world
champion by the World Boxing Federation (WBF) in the Middleweight division and
while some may not recognize the WBF as a world sanctioning organization, that
world championship will also be at stake in this bout in addition to the three
world titles that Shields currently holds.
The key to this fight in this observer's eyes will be whether
or not Kozin will be able to get the respect of Shields early. At her best, Shields
is a compact offensive-minded fighter that has a good mix of hand speed and
punching power in being able to either out work opponents to win rounds or
score knockouts should the opportunity arise. It will boil down to whether or
not Kozin will be able to establish and control the pace. For her part, Kozin
has good hooks with either hand and has shown in her career to have an
effective attack to an opponent's body. Kozin has yet to face a fighter that
fights at a fast pace as Shields typically does and whether or not Kozin will
be able to implement an attack that is based on both counter punching as well
as being able to take advantage of openings an opponent might leave her,
remains to be seen.
There is always the possibility given that Shields has split
her time between Boxing and her MMA career that burn out could also be a
factor. As of yet, there has not been any indication that this could happen as
between her two MMA bouts, Shields has continued to be dominant in the Boxing
ring. Nevertheless, the possibility of burn out as well as physical fatigue
from significant training exists in addition to the potential of Shields
possibly looking ahead towards a bout with Savannah Marshall.
Also on the card in Cardiff, Wales, will be an intriguing
Middleweight bout between former IBO world champion Chris Eubank Jr. and top
contender and former world title challenger Liam Williams. A bout that uniquely
is being marketed as being the main event of the card in the United Kingdom
whereas the Shields-Kozin bout has received top billing here in the United
States. The differences in the marketing of this card notwithstanding, the Eubank-Williams
bout one might argue is a crossroads encounter in a 160lb. Middleweight
division that could be heading towards a period of transition with several top
players in the division including Demetrius Andrade, the two-division world
champion and most recently the former WBO Middleweight world champion potentially
seeking more lucrative opportunities in the 168lb. Super-Middleweight division where
current Undisputed world champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez sits atop the division
and as the top marquee draw in the sport has the ability to make any fight he
is involved in very lucrative for those who will be sharing the ring with him.
With several top fighters in the Middleweight division looking at the
possibility of moving up to challenge Alvarez, providing that Alvarez stays in
the division, there is obviously the potential for contenders like Eubank and
Williams to maneuver into possibly fighting for a Middleweight world
championship.
In terms of what one can look for in this fight, this will be
an interesting clash of styles. Liam Williams is coming into this fight off of
a failed world championship challenge to then WBO world champion Andrade in his
last fight. Despite being knocked down in the second round of that fight,
Williams, a former British Middleweight champion was very “Game” in going the
distance with Andrade in losing a twelve round unanimous decision. In his
twenty-seven career bouts, Williams has a record of 23-3-1, with 18 Knockouts.
Those three losses however, came to arguably the two best fighters that
Williams has fought thus far in his career. The most recent loss to Andrade as
well as two losses to former Jr. Middleweight world champion Liam Smith in 2017.
Williams however, has good punching power and has shown that
he is capable of scoring quick knockouts should the opportunity arise. This seems
at least on paper to create a scenario of what could be an exciting bout as
Williams’ opponent Chris Eubank Jr. is also someone who likes to come forward,
has twenty-three knockouts in his thirty-one career wins registering a near 70%
career knockout percentage compared to Williams’ near 67%. With both fighters
having come forward styles that look to bring the fight to their opponent, this
might be a scenario that it may come down to who is able to land the first
significant power punch.
The pay-per-view doubleheader in Cardiff, Wales will not be
the only pay-per-view offering on February 5th as later that evening
former WBA Welterweight world champion Keith Thurman will return to the ring
for the first time in nearly two years by facing top Jr. Welterweight contender
Mario Barrios at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, NV that will
headline a four bout pay-per-view card broadcast by Fox Sports Pay-Per-View
here in the United States for $74.99 that will also be available on FITE as
well as the Fox Sports app and traditional cable/satellite providers.
In the interest of honesty with the reader, I would not be
doing my job as a Boxing journalist/historian if I did not at least mention the
fact that this fight being sold as a pay-per-view event and more specifically
the inflated price point has drawn significant criticism from Boxing fans. This
is due in large part to Fox Sports doing a pay-per-view on new year’s day,
which was headlined by former Heavyweight world champion Charles Martin and
former world title challenger Luis Ortiz, being marketed heavily as being
economically priced at $39.99. Despite the more reasonable price point, some
estimates that have been reported by a variety of Boxing media outlets have
claimed that the event, which was held at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and
Casino in Hollywood, FL only generated 25,000 buys on pay-per-view between
traditional providers and streaming platforms/networks like Fox’s own sports
app and FITE.
Keeping in mind that this observer has long been critical of
those in the sport both promoters and television networks for their continued
reliance on the pay-per-view model, despite the success of digital
subscription-based streaming networks like DAZN and ESPN+, which have shown
that there is a viable alternative not just for the consumer in a
subscription-based streaming model, but also a revenue source for promoters and
fighters who have yet to embrace the benefits of such a model, I do not have
access to the numbers of what the Martin-Ortiz event actually drew on
pay-per-view, which is why the term estimates is being used here.
With that said, if the event truly underperformed to that
degree, it is highly questionable why the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) group
of promoters, who also promoted Martin-Ortiz and Fox Sports would think that a
card, that has pretty much the same premise of the main event being a
crossroads fight, would do better in terms of buys at an inflated price point,
which unfortunately has become the standard for what this observer has called
the “Hold Outs” that have yet to embrace the benefits subscription-based
options could have for their events and for their networks. The criticism of
yours truly, which I stand by, notwithstanding, the Thurman-Barrios bout is
intriguing.
What makes this fight intriguing? It is the first fight for
Keith Thurman since he lost his WBA Welterweight world championship to Manny
Pacquiao in July 2019. The question going into this fight is fairly obvious.
What kind of condition will Thurman be in after such a lengthy layoff. Although
Thurman’s loss to Pacquiao came via split decision, it was a fight where the opinion
of many felt Pacquiao out boxed Thurman over the twelve round world
championship bout. Rather than trying to quickly re-establish himself following
the loss and the global epidemic of COVID-19 that followed and unfortunately
continues, Thurman has chosen to stay inactive until now. While a lengthy rest
likely helped Thurman to recover from nagging injuries that all fighters deal with,
one does have to wonder what Thurman will look like nearly two years removed
from his last fight.
Although the length of Thurman’s inactivity was likely
influenced in part by the uncertainty of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, an
old-school perspective from this observer is that more often than not, the best
way for a fighter to remain in fighting shape and avoid what is known as “Ring
Rust” is to not only be in the gym training, but more importantly by being
active in competition. Opinions can obviously differ, but I have always held
the belief that the more active a fighter can be, the better that fighter’s
odds of being prepared if a lucrative fight and/or an opportunity to fight for
a world championship comes along. This
is why many veteran fighters opt to stay as active as possible regardless of
the caliber of opposition.
Of course, it is difficult to expect every fighter to have
that approach, particularly when fighters at the highest level of the sport as
Thurman had been for several years prior to his layoff earn millions of dollars
each time they step into the ring to compete. As such, some might argue that
the incentive to remain active is not as strong at least from a financial
standpoint. While all fighters who enter the ring to compete deserve to make as
much as they can, while they can because after all each and every fighter is
risking their lives each time the enter the ring to compete, there has been
evidence that fighters who compete on a limited basis whether it be once or
twice a year, or even long stretches of inactivity between fights eventually
suffer from eroded skills at some point in their careers.
At his best, Keith Thurman is a come forward fighter who has
been more than willing to engage with his opponents with a good mix of hand
speed and punching power. It will be interesting to see if the inactivity has
benefited Thurman not only in terms of physically, but in terms of during a
fight if the inactivity will have had an effect on his reaction time, reflexes,
and his ability to take a punch. The answer to those questions will likely come
early in this fight against Mario Barrios.
Barrios, who will be moving up seven pounds in weight from
the 140lb. Jr. Welterweight division to the 147lb. Welterweight division is,
like Thurman a boxer/puncher, who likes to come forward and engage with his
opponents. Mario Barrios is coming into this fight off of his only career
defeat in being stopped in his last bout by Gervonta Davis in eleven rounds in
June of last year. In what was a very competitive bout where he held his own
against the betting favorite Davis, Barrios nearly pulled off what some might
have called an upset before he was caught and stopped late in the eleventh
round.
Coming into this fight, Barrios has what might be seen as an
advantage simply because he has been the more active of the two fighters. The
question that will surround Barrios going into this bout will be how he will
respond to fighting as a Welterweight against the naturally bigger Thurman. It
will also be interesting to see if Barrios will look to test Thurman early
given the issue of his inactivity or if he will be cautious and respectful of
Thurman’s punching power. Barrios must keep in mind however, that he was caught
in his last fight against Davis and that led to him being stopped. With this in
mind, it is probably wise to assume that Barrios will be tactical in his
approach even if he does test Thurman early.
While this fight is between two notable fighters, one a
former world champion and the other a top contender moving up in weight for
this fight, it is difficult at least for the moment to say where the winner of
this bout might figure into the equation of the Welterweight division given
that both Thurman and Barrios are coming off losses in their last bouts and the
depth of the division that is largely in a state of flux due to issues
occurring outside of the ring in terms of the top of the division.
Nevertheless, the winner will likely find himself with some room to maneuver to
at the very least get another bout against a top contender if an opportunity
against one of the current world champions in the division is not available in
the foreseeable future.
On the undercard of Thurman-Barrios former three-division world
champion Leo Santa Cruz will return to action for the first time since
Halloween night 2020 when he faces Keenan Carbajal in a
Featherweight bout scheduled for ten rounds. Similar to Mario Barrios, Santa
Cruz is coming off of a knockout loss to Gervonta Davis. In what was an
exciting fight that was quite competitive, the bout came to a sudden conclusion
when an uppercut from Davis ended the night for Santa Cruz. Although Santa Cruz’
loss to Davis was a one punch knockout, the effects from it have kept him out
of competition for over a year. Santa
Cruz now looks to get back on track in this fight against Keenan Carbajal.
Carbajal, the nephew of former four-time world champion and Hall of Famer
Michael Carbajal, will enter this fight with a record of 23-2-1, with 15
Knockouts and has been unbeaten since 2015. This however, will be a step up in
caliber of opposition for Carbajal, who will be giving up significant
experience to Santa Cruz, who will enter with a record of 37-2-1, with 19
Knockouts.
While Carbajal may be unknown to some going into this bout,
it is important to remember that Santa Cruz is coming off of a knockout loss
that was severe in how it occurred. It is logical to assume that Carbajal will
look to test Santa Cruz early. At his best, Santa Cruz is a fighter with an
entertaining style that has been more than willing to engage with his opponents
over the years. After suffering the first knockout of his career however, an
obvious question that will probably be asked among some Boxing fans is whether
or not he will be as willing to engage in exchanges of offense as he was before
he was caught by Gervonta Davis.
Although Keenan Carbajal has an eighteen fight winning
streak coming into this bout, he has fought several fighters that are not known
and who some would describe by a term that this observer personally dislikes “Journeymen.”
As much as the story of this fight will center around what effect did the
knockout Leo Santa Cruz suffered had on him, the other plot line here will be
what will Carbajal bring to the table in what is clearly the biggest fight of
his career and a chance to instantly establish himself amongst the best in the 126lb.
Featherweight division should he turn in a good performance win or lose. While
there is a clear temptation to label this as simply a “Comeback Fight” for
Santa Cruz, the reality is, it may be best to view things with the mindset of
one fight at a time at this stage of his career and what path his career takes
going forward could be influenced in part by what happens in this fight against
Carbajal.
The concept of two pay-per-view Boxing cards taking place
in the span of one day is something that is indeed not new as Boxing has flirted
with it on an occasional basis going back to the early 2000’s prior to the
advent of streaming technology and the often more sensible subscription-based
streaming model. With four fights, the four headline bouts on these two
pay-per-view cards having been previewed in this column, it would be a shame
given the stories leading into each bout if the main story in the weeks that follow
these two cards concerns strictly the estimates of pay-per-view buys each event
generates, which has unfortunately been as much of the story of recent
pay-per-view events as the fights themselves.
Although it is tempting to take a negative view having seen
the decline of the pay-per-view model and the thus far unwillingness to adapt
by some promoters and networks to a more economically reasonable model that
will not in essence price out many consumers, yours truly will take an
optimistic stance and say simply that I am looking forward to what occurs inside
the ring between these two separate cards. The other factors that be in regard
to the business of Boxing and the paywall structure can be discussed at a later
time. For now, let these fighters do what they do best, compete. We’ll see who
emerges victorious from these two events on Saturday, February 5th.
“And That’s The Boxing Truth.”
We will have weigh-in and broadcast information for these
two cards available here on The Boxing Truth® on Friday, February 4th.
Stay Tuned.
The Boxing Truth® is a registered trademark of Beau Denison
All Rights Reserved.
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